Reliable Luck

One of the most reliable drivers of our business in the last year has been a factor that most people would strongly advise against depending on: random chance

Whether it was how we met Ocean (our first hire), how we got connected to some of our closest partners, or how we found our office space in lower Manhattan, there has been some element of luck in almost all of the critical inflection points in our business.

Random encounters seem to underpin everything we do - and maybe we truly are just exceptionally lucky - but I think there’s a more important lesson beneath all of these situations - that action breeds unpredictable opportunity

The more you expose yourself to, the more you put yourself out there, the more you pursue your interests - the more likely you are to stumble upon opportunities that others would not. It’s impossible to predict what outcomes will be produced, but it’s a certainty that your probability of a positive outcome is higher when you take action. 

This isn’t a new idea. Luck Surface Area is a well established (though under-appreciated) concept that is defined as “the extent to which your actions and visibility expose you to unexpected good fortune”. I think this is massively important in our business, in sales, and in broader career moves.

In sales, the applications are obvious. Go to conferences, go to networking events, post on linkedin, reach out to every person you possibly can. One of the best examples I’ve seen in our category is Kade Hinkle. An 18 year old kid who started posting on linkedin about the SDR role and has now landed a great job (without going to college), crushed his quota, been promoted, and landed almost 15k followers. There is no chance he could have predicted this outcome, but his actions opened the door for disproportionately positive results. I think the advantage grows if you are the only person in your category taking the action. 

In broader career moves, the same logic applies. The people who get lucky are the ones who take action. Two years ago, my roommate hated his job and wanted to make a move. He went to networking events, talked to dozens of recruiters, studied up on the startup ecosystem, and landed as employee 14 at a small marketing ai business that had just closed their Series A. That company was Profound. They are now a 250 person company valued at over $1B and are one of the hottest companies in the world. Yes, there is luck involved, but his chances of getting lucky were infinitely greater than the person who took zero action. 

New York City - and in particular the startup ecosystem - is the best possible place to capitalize on this reality. There are more talented, ambitious, well-connected people in this city than anywhere in the world. The denser the network of influential people, the higher the probability of serendipity. You can step outside and see your idol citi-biking past you. People here are able to help, and more importantly, want to help others achieve their goals. 

You have the ability to manufacture your luck - all that separates you from taking advantage of this, are small, regular actions.